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Fresh Market Forecast – June 2021

Fresh Market


With the year now in full swing the impact of the pandemic is becoming much clearer on both producers and suppliers. Across the globe Fresh Produce has seen increasingly high demand and costs. Not only this but with the UK now an ‘independent’ entity against their old EU counter-parts adds further checks, costs and commitments which makes the buying, selling and production of fresh goods difficult. These pressures combined with the ever-changing weather are two of the factors in the increases across the Fresh Market. Two of the products which have seen the biggest changes are Vegetable Oils and Grains, with both receiving increased exports and demand.


Vegetable Oils

Pricing for Vegetable Oil is currently at a ten year high. Stock levels for all edible oils on a global scale are lower than anticipated. As aforementioned a leading factor is the weather in key growth areas being damaged by frosts. In the UK it’s almost the opposite, with reduced rainfall in turn reducing crop yield and growth.  There are prolonged high prices which are having an impact on the demand for soyabeans.  This pressure on the soyabean market is forcing itself across the entire oil-seed range. Rapeseed, soya, sunflower and palm oils are all in reduced demand with exports to China being up 40%. Demand for vegetable oil has increased globally; with it now being a main source protein for animal feed and its use as a biofuel. Rapeseed oils across the EU, particularly in Paris, France have had even further pressures; due to Sterling against the Euro.


Global Grain Markets

This Thursday 27th May the UK’s  cereal supply & demand estimates will be published, this will show in depth the impact on wheat, grain and barley. Concerns have relaxed for the production of Wheat; its forecast to fall in price globally until the demand throughout the 21/22 season evens out. Maize production however has seen a rise in concern; due to the dry weather across Brazilian farms. This combined with a huge demand from China supports the price hikes. Barley is comparatively similar to Wheat, prices are lowering but expecting to even out later into the season.

Global Wheat Markets closed down mid May for improved prospects in the US and EU. Favourable weather eased their farming concerns on global wheat prices, while Canadian wheat areas remain dry; supporting the lowest value fall for Canadian wheat. The future for UK wheat has had its second consecutive weekly fall following the global price decrease which supports the supply issues. What is good to read is that the Global pricing for Grain products is expected to realign come the end of the 2022 season.


What Next

In the next few months we will continue to monitor the Fresh Market for our customers. With the weather expecting to slowly pick up across the UK it’s expected to bring with it changes in demand for fresh fruit and vegetables. We will update our News articles as and when we can with updated information so keep your eyes peeled.

All of our information is taken from our supported supplier base and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).